Prediction Markets and the Price of Boring Prediction markets are supposed to tell us what’s going to happen, though arguably they do a better job at telling us what the consensus expectation is. In practice, they mostly tell us what people want to bet on. We’ve spent a lot of time trading and studying prediction markets at Starkiller, in fact our Chief Investment Officer, Leigh Drogen, was the founder of Estimize, the largest corporate earnings prediction market in the world

By Leigh Drogen and Dennis Qian of Starkiller Capital Last year we argued that blockspace was crypto’s heaviest bag in this piece . It was abundant, undifferentiated, and already on its way to being priced like a commodity. A year later, the bag has gotten heavier. Blockspace isn’t just abundant anymore, it’s worthless. And the smartest players in the room have stopped pretending otherwise. The original pitch for Ethereum and its L2s was simple: rent our blockspace, pay the t

By Leigh Drogen and Dennis Qian of Starkiller Capital In the late 1990’s, as the tech bubble was inflating, many questioned whether the internet would ever produce applications that drove sustainable businesses. Yes there were a limited number of early successes, but most of the profitable businesses in Web1 were basically physical infrastructure companies and ISPs. There was a lot of hand wringing over the chicken and egg issue for why applications couldn’t find a critical m

Was it the smelling salts that did it or was it just a matter of time? We’ll never know, and does it really matter? Digital asset markets have been on a tear the past six months, awoken from their crypto winter slumber of unknown duration. Last September we published this piece detailing the miserable 2023 trend following and cross-sectional momentum strategies had seen despite the solid year-to-date performance from Bitcoin. We highlighted a set of variables that were likel

As the summer comes to a close and we round the corner towards Q4, I wanted to share a few thoughts about what we’ve seen so far in 2023...

Cross-sectional Momentum in Cryptocurrency Markets By Leigh Drogen, Corey Hoffstein & Kevin Otte of Starkiller Capital Abstract There is...

On January 22nd of this year I published the first piece on this blog titled " Survive and Advance ". The basic premise is that crypto markets are simply about surviving the bust cycles so you can advance to the next bubble cycle where you can play fast and loose. It looks at a very simple momentum/trend following model that represents the strategic incarnation of that core belief we hold paramount at Starkiller, that liquid crypto markets are basically a series of bubble and

A little over a month ago a new NFT marketplace called LooksRare was launched on Ethereum. But unlike OpenSea, the largest NFT...

When Jason Zweig of The Wall Street Journal takes something seriously in his column, you best pay attention because he doesn't screw...

Welcome to the first installment of Starkiller Capital Insights. The truth is that I (Leigh Drogen, Starkiller Capital GP and CIO) am not...