Prediction Markets and the Price of Boring Prediction markets are supposed to tell us what’s going to happen, though arguably they do a better job at telling us what the consensus expectation is. In practice, they mostly tell us what people want to bet on. We’ve spent a lot of time trading and studying prediction markets at Starkiller, in fact our Chief Investment Officer, Leigh Drogen, was the founder of Estimize, the largest corporate earnings prediction market in the world

By Leigh Drogen and Dennis Qian of Starkiller Capital Last year we argued that blockspace was crypto’s heaviest bag in this piece . It was abundant, undifferentiated, and already on its way to being priced like a commodity. A year later, the bag has gotten heavier. Blockspace isn’t just abundant anymore, it’s worthless. And the smartest players in the room have stopped pretending otherwise. The original pitch for Ethereum and its L2s was simple: rent our blockspace, pay the t

I want to thank Justin Carbonneau and Kai Wu for having me on the Excess Returns Podcast. It's a really great no fluff conversation that gets directly to some of the big issues and opportunities in digital asset investing today and how our liquid token trend following and DeFi market neutral yield strategies interact with them. Specifically we talk about the corollary between the tech bubble crash and crypto transitioning from the fat protocol thesis to the fat app thesis, wh